Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.220115 0.265066 0.319098 0.389520 0.479892 0.593365 7.488613e-01
2025-06-08 0.163899 0.215984 0.286126 0.389820 0.543334 0.769180 1.140487e+00
2025-06-15 0.128945 0.183264 0.263896 0.397319 0.623159 1.011768 1.786273e+00
2025-06-22 0.103654 0.157337 0.244219 0.403732 0.710947 1.330852 2.854889e+00
2025-06-29 0.081362 0.130303 0.215393 0.386188 0.755364 1.620734 4.251843e+00
2025-07-06 0.057811 0.095647 0.164393 0.310362 0.650485 1.533111 4.662072e+00
2025-07-13 0.048572 0.083976 0.152298 0.309252 0.716856 1.949686 7.547827e+00
2025-07-20 0.042576 0.076900 0.147287 0.322743 0.834792 2.677839 1.407632e+01
2025-07-27 0.038119 0.071801 0.145085 0.343332 0.996701 3.847894 2.973618e+01
2025-08-03 0.033962 0.066382 0.140748 0.357596 1.160178 5.420302 6.595616e+01
2025-08-10 0.029558 0.059473 0.131031 0.352793 1.257667 6.979595 1.362577e+02
2025-08-17 0.025630 0.052834 0.120250 0.340421 1.320000 8.619226 2.822342e+02
2025-08-24 0.022904 0.048695 0.115580 0.349571 1.520372 12.586478 1.038949e+03
2025-08-31 0.020571 0.045019 0.111218 0.358811 1.753630 18.855546 6.238871e+03
2025-09-07 0.018703 0.042118 0.108306 0.373337 2.066927 30.170339 1.466759e+05
2025-09-14 0.017030 0.039369 0.105097 0.385917 2.418941 49.402341 5.725711e+11
2025-09-21 0.015106 0.035566 0.097480 0.374572 2.575156 69.177160 NaN
2025-09-28 0.012370 0.029088 0.079579 0.304823 2.082028 54.818820 NaN
2025-10-05 0.011303 0.027092 0.076214 0.306518 2.319033 84.879840 NaN
2025-10-12 0.010591 0.025966 0.075520 0.322291 2.774665 161.884361 NaN
2025-10-19 0.010036 0.025189 0.075863 0.345012 3.432871 367.251811 NaN
2025-10-26 0.009439 0.024174 0.075059 0.361244 4.112731 860.250817 NaN
2025-11-02 0.008689 0.022559 0.071511 0.357909 4.487996 1653.082695 NaN